01 Founding 02 Decade 1 03 Decade 2 04 Decade 3 05 Decade 4 06 Decade 5 07 Decade 6 08 Current 09 Clubs 10 Statistics A Glossary B Bibliography
Akte Forecasts is Live
Expert forecasts for Bundesliga results, transfers and the economics of German football. Brier Score leaderboard.
Live Forecasts ↗

Prediction Markets

Two ways to forecast — reputation-based or with real money. Professional tools for both.

Two paths, one goal

Prediction markets are trading platforms where you trade on the outcome of future events. Unlike sports betting, prices aren't set by a bookmaker but by supply and demand — like a stock exchange. We use two fundamentally different approaches:

Mode 1 — Reputation-based
Forecasting without money

Predict events and build reputation. No real money — pure skill measurement via Brier Score and simulated P&L. Three tiers: Community → AI → Expert. Free, legal, open to everyone.

Brier Score Simulated P&L Leaderboard No money
Football Forecasts ↗
Finance Forecasts ↗
Mode 2 — Real trading
Professional event markets

Real money on regulated platforms. Supported by professional tools: Kelly Calculator, Expected Value Calculator, Value Signal Classifier and Directional Alpha Framework with 51 patterns.

Real money Kelly Calculator EV Calculator 51 Patterns
Directional Alpha →
Arbitrage →

Our prediction platforms

All predictions run through the Altus Alpha Prediction Hub — a vertical forecasting ecosystem for finance and football. Each platform has its own questions, experts and AI models.

Football Predictions
Bundesliga results, season markets, transfers — 22 clubs, 3 tracks
predictions.aktebundesliga.net ↗
Finance Predictions
Fed decisions, NVIDIA earnings, Bitcoin, S&P 500, semiconductor cycle — 5 tracks, 50+ questions
predictions.closelook.net ↗
Altus Alpha — Prediction Hub
The overarching hub: all verticals, unified leaderboard, cross-vertical reputation
altusalpha.com ↗

Club predictions

Each of the 21 Bundesliga clubs has its own predictions page with matchday forecasts, season futures and transfer questions. Data is aggregated via the Akte API — Pinnacle as pricing oracle, Polymarket for real-money signals.

BVB ↗ Bayern Königsblau Bayer Leipzig Gladbach Wölfe Eintracht Werder Hoffe Effzeh Mainz Hertha SCF Fortuna Augsburg Union Paderborn Stuttgart HSV St. Pauli

Professional trading tools

Those trading on regulated event markets with real money need the same discipline as a professional trader. Our tools help:

Kelly Calculator
Optimal position sizing — ¼ Kelly as conservative standard
EV Calculator
Expected value per trade — only trade when EV is positive
Value Signal Classifier
Automatic detection of mispricing signals between markets
Directional Alpha
51 patterns in 10 categories — systematic framework for event markets

The European information advantage

Polymarket and Kalshi are US-centric. If you live in Europe, watch Sportschau, read kicker and understand the 50+1 dynamic, you have a structural information advantage. Plus the timezone: when Bundesliga news breaks in German media, most PM traders are still asleep. That's not coincidence — that's alpha.

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Deep Dive
Directional Alpha — 51 Patterns →
Systematic framework for event markets
Soccer Economics Beta
Predictions need financial data
Transfer Firepower, DFL Compliance, Structural Risk — understanding balance sheets means better predictions.
Soccer Economics →
Read more: ← Hub · Directional Alpha · Arbitrage · Altus Alpha ↗
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Akte Bundesliga Network
Bayern BVB Königsblau Bayer Gladbach → All 21 Clubs

Frequently Asked Questions

What are prediction markets?
Trading platforms for event probabilities. You buy and sell contracts on the outcome of events — e.g. Bundesliga results, Fed decisions or earnings. Prices are determined by supply and demand, not by a bookmaker.
What's the difference between reputation-based forecasting and real trading?
With reputation-based forecasting, you predict events without money — quality is measured via Brier Score and simulated P&L. With real trading, you use actual money on regulated platforms like Kalshi or Polymarket.
Is prediction market trading legal in Germany?
Reputation-based forecasting (no money) is fully legal in Germany and the EU. Real-money trading on US-regulated platforms is subject to each platform's regulations and country restrictions.
What is the Brier Score?
The gold standard for probabilistic forecasting. Formula: (prediction − outcome)². Range 0.0 (perfect) to 1.0 (completely wrong). Always predicting 50% gives 0.25.
What is Directional Alpha?
A systematic framework with 51 patterns in 10 categories — from fundamental analysis to behavioral exploitation to Elliott Wave adaptations for prediction markets. Built for professional event trading.